Venezuela gets ready for another (anti)dramatic week
Like clockwork, Venezuela is suddenly full of intrigue again, at least if you’re paying attention to social media, where—just days before strongman Nicolas Maduro is set to re-install himself into a new term—the rumors and likely psyops are freely flowing. Maria Corina Machado, the charismatic leader of an opposition that’s now clearly in the majority, is even hinting at a possible emergence from hiding and calling on supporters to take to the streets en masse in what could be a final showdown.
If you believe everything you read on X, this could be the week when the military finally does an about-face and joins its beleaguered pueblo to restore democracy in the bountiful land of Caribbean beaches and world’s largest oil reserves. But it will most likely just end with Maduro smugly donning the presidential sash and railing against everyone who doesn’t show up for his party, as the rest of the world shrugs.
While everyone knows Maduro didn’t win the July election—with even the Carter Center saying it did not meet international standards or comply with national laws—what’s different this time around is that the regime isn’t really trying to spin an alternative narrative, however fantastical. Gone are the days when Maduro and his predecessor, former President Hugo Chavez, feigned democratic pretexts and at least wanted the veneer of legitimacy. What’s new is shameless power, cold and hard, and in your face. What Maduro’s “inauguration day” set for January 10 will represent, if it goes as most expect, will be Venezuela’s shift from a dictatorship that still pretends to want checks on its power and respect for international norms into an iron-fisted one that doesn’t.
The Crackdown
Maduro had already made this direction abundantly clear over the past few months, if not years, brutally cracking down on dissent, detaining foreign nationals he can use as leverage in prisoner exchanges, and even picking a bizarre fight with a famous pop band about the lyrics of a popular song. Well-to-do Venezuelans still residing in Venezuela may have thought that they could try and relax into a new equilibrium by distracting themselves with concerts and restaurants, but after Friday, there will be no pretending anymore. Call a spade a spade.
That’s not to say there won’t be some fireworks. Machado, in the run-up to the election, ran a near-perfect campaign and outmanoeuvred Maduro’s government at every roadblock they threw her way. After being barred from running herself, the stand-in candidate she supported—Edmundo González Urrutia—obtained a decisive victory, according to voting tallies released by the opposition that have yet to be published by the government’s electoral council. He fled the country initially but has promised to return for what he says should be his inauguration day despite Maduro’s threats to jail him if he does.
“I’m going to be there, however I get there,” the 75-year-old said days ago from Argentina, where he held meetings with President Javier Milei before departing for the US to meet with President Joe Biden. It’s a high-stakes game of chicken, and Maduro would most likely revel in the chance at throwing a friendly grandfather in jail. It’s all on brand with his new look.
Lines to be drawn
Even if nothing much happens, there will be interesting lines drawn. Maduro’s ceremony, if it goes on as planned, will be a who’s who of international pariahs. Many countries—even leftist allies like Honduras—are declining to send representatives. It’s a toxic situation most seem to want to avoid, especially with the forthcoming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump just 10 days later. But Mexico will be there, and Colombia and Brazil are also expected to send representatives in moves Maduro will use to legitimize his power grab. It will also be a chance for longtime allies China and Russia to signal just how much they’ll continue to prop up the regime. The higher level the delegate, the more it will be read as a show of support for Maduro.
It’s Mexico’s new President Claudia Sheinbaum who has given what’s perhaps been the most cynical explanation for her government’s planned attendance so far, saying Monday that it was up to Venezuelans to work out their own government. That’s exactly what they tried to do in July.
The words used on Friday will also be important. Will legacy media still refer to Maduro as “President”? Will they call the ceremony an “inauguration”? Will they say he was “sworn in” or “took office”? Here’s what the headlines should actually state, if everything goes as expected: Nicolas Maduro, backed by the military, re-seats himself in power after ignoring the clear will of the Venezuelan people.
The Trump factor
Perhaps the most important wildcard in the coming days will be the Trump factor. The former and soon-to-be-again US President provided key support to the unsuccessful “interim” presidency of then-opposition leader Juan Guaido back in 2019, but so far he’s remained relatively quiet about how he plans to approach Maduro in his second term. And rightfully so. Venezuela sits at the messy intersection of several key issues Trump has vowed to tackle including illegal migration, gang violence and drug trafficking.
Trump may be still keeping his cards close, but Gonzalez’s Monday meeting with the outgoing President Biden could easily be read as a risky move if he’s looking to win Trump’s favor; his time may have been better spent in Mar-a-Lago. There’s also aggressive pressure from oil giants like Chevron (NYSE: CVX), which have been eager to normalize relations with Maduro to get back to big business. That’s not to say Trump will be keen to embrace any sort of détente with Maduro anytime soon, and his nominations of Florida Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mauricio Claver-Carone as the State Department’s Special Envoy for Latin America signaled a more hawkish stance than many expected.
Maduro’s big day this week may not live up to the social media rumor mill, as most Venezuelans, wary of the regime’s crackdowns, will likely hunker down at home to avoid the threatened violence. But the world will still be paying attention, however quietly, and after Friday, no one will be able to pretend anymore.
