Podcast platforms like Spotify (NYSE: SPOT) emerge as election MVPs

Podcasts are in. Traditional mainstream media is out. That was one of the biggest results of a hotly contested presidential election in the US last week that handed Donald Trump victory over rival Kamala Harris, with the rising influence of the medium in political campaigning emerging as one of the primary talking points in the Monday morning quarterbacking now flooding the airwaves and newsletters. The real winners may be the platforms that distribute all the content including Spotify (NYSE: SPOT), Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI), iHeartMedia (NASDAQ: IHRT), Google’s YouTube (NASDAQ: GOOG) and X.

While proponents of podcasting have long pointed to its intimate nature that allows hosts and interviewees to have in-depth and raw discussions that starkly contrast with contrived, pre-written speeches and focus group tested advertisements that dominate television, it’s listener demographics that are coming into focus and raising the most eyebrows. The realigned coalition that decided to give Trump a second chance in the White House included growing shares of young men and Latinos, two key groups known to tune into the most popular podcast in the world: The Joe Rogan Experience. The show has such a reach that Edison Research signaled three weeks ahead of the election that it might be a good way for candidates to connect with voters.

 “We’re waiting to see who will land on The Joe Rogan Experience,” the consultancy wrote on Oct. 15, noting listeners clocked in at 80% male with just about equal amounts of Republicans, Democrats and independents. “With such a diverse and politically balanced audience, Rogan’s show offers candidates an invaluable opportunity to reach key voter groups.” Trump jumped at the chance and recorded a 3-hour interview that aired on Oct. 25, while Harris never ended up accepting an open invitation to appear on the show from Rogan’s studio in Austin, Texas. The rest, as they say, is history. 

The phenomenon is larger than just Rogan, who earlier this year signed a fresh, $250 million deal with Spotify. In the months leading up to the election, Trump made stops at a number of popular podcasts including This Past Weekend, Lex Fridman and All-In, with the interviews getting nearly a quarter of a billion views on YouTube and X alone. Harris did make a smaller round of appearances on shows including All the Smoke and Club Shay Shay but generally saw much smaller audiences. The Democratic candidate, for example, attracted 811,000 YouTube views on an episode of the Call Her Daddy podcast that’s popular with younger women. Trump’s appearance on Rogan dwarfed that, with 70 million views on YouTube and X.

“The most efficient way to reach the largest and most persuadable audience (i.e., young men) is via podcast,” marketing professor and fellow podcaster Scott Galloway said in an election rundown, noting the much smaller and older audiences who watch cable television. “People listen to pods to learn; they watch cable TV to sanctify what they already believe. The former is (much) more appealing to candidates and advertisers.”

As the political class starts to pay more attention, money is flowing into the sector. Grand View Research expects the global podcasting market—currently worth more than $20 billion a year—to expand a whopping 27.6% a year through 2030. It’s hard for any single podcaster to find a large audience that can be monetized in the competitive and saturated field, which means it’s the platforms like Spotify and YouTube that should be well positioned to capture much of the growth, especially if political campaigns start to focus more on the sector in future elections with their flush advertising budgets. The 2024 election cycle in the US is on track to have been the most expensive ever, with nearly $16 billion in spending, according to the Open Secrets NGO that tracks money in politics. 

“The political power of podcasting is only beginning to be felt,” Galloway said. “In each election the victor is likely to be whoever best weaponizes an emerging medium…By far the most potent media weapon this time was podcasting.”

Companies like Spotify—whose stock is up 140% over the past year—seem to be in an advantageous spot for the boom, but the question now is if the medium can survive the coming onslaught or if it will fall victim to its own success. Podcasting has flourished largely because of its independence from the more traditional media that’s heavily influenced by big money. That could all be about to change, though, if ad saturation or rising pressure on independent voices end up alienating the very listeners driving all the growth.