For more than 40 years, technologists have rhapsodized about quantum (superfast) computing, saying it would come soon and fundamentally change the world.
That obviously hasn’t happened yet. But many experts say it’s coming in the next five years. And if it does, quantum computing could make artificial intelligence extremely more potent. This would give tech companies that are leaders in both quantum and AI capabilities a huge leg up over competitors.
The current applications of AI – generative and language-based – have their limits. You may have seen them produce mistakes in your own use of the technology. Artificial general intelligence (AGI), which would have human-like cognitive abilities, is the holy grail.
It could understand, learn, and apply knowledge broadly, without needing specific training for each new task. That’s what researchers hope to create, and it may take quantum computing to do it.
Quantum computing uses the principles of quantum mechanics to solve problems too complex for traditional computers. The scientific meaning of quantum is the smallest discrete unit of a physical entity involved in an interaction.
Computing is all about “bits,” which are the smallest unit of digital information in a computer.
Traditional computers use binary “bits,” which can only be expressed as one or zero.
By contrast, quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits, which can represent zero, one, or a combination of both simultaneously. That allows the computer to process information in a greatly more powerful way.
Speed, capacity, applications
If all of that confuses you, just think of quantum computers as super-fast with huge capacity. That’s the main point.
Assuming they do come about, quantum computers should be able to assist with breakthroughs in drug discovery, materials design, financial portfolio analysis, cybersecurity, logistics and communications. AI, of course, already is at work in these areas. Combining quantum and AI could be quite powerful.
Quantum computing could significantly accelerate the training of large language models and other AI systems. Researchers are working to develop hybrid quantum-classical computing systems to create more sophisticated AI applications for areas like computer vision and natural language processing. Quantum computing also could help AI handle massive data sets, improving data analysis.
The three companies leading the way in the race for quantum computing hardware (semiconductor chips) are International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). IBM is leading the way, according to The Wall Street Journal.
IBM’s lagging stock price
That may surprise you given the sluggish performance of Big Blue over the past 30-plus years. IBM’s stock has gained just 82% over the last 10 years, compared to 667% for Alphabet and 1,076% for Microsoft.
IBM has partnered with chip maker Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) to create a large-scale quantum computer in the next five years. One thing Big Blue has going for it is its own microchip fabricator, which most U.S. companies don’t have, The Journal noted. It can develop its chips in-house alongside the hardware that supports them, such as cooling structures.
The company is working to make qubits that can withstand disturbances. Qubits are now so sensitive that they can be disabled by things such as earthquakes on the opposite side of the globe.
IBM hopes to deploy a new set of quantum chips soon, The Journal reports. They would be melded together in bigger clusters than the current generation. IBM plans to introduce its first big, quantum computer that can handle disturbances in 2029, The Journal said.
Gartner analyst Mark Horvath told the paper that IBM and its top competitors will likely begin posting substantial revenue from quantum computing by 2030. Alphabet also sees tremendous progress for quantum computers in the next five years. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency just chose it as part of its evaluation of quantum computer makers.
Among the roadblocks IBM and Alphabet face are how to cool their quantum chips adequately and how to make fixes when a disturbance inevitably wipes out data on their qubits, according to The Journal. Microsoft’s chip has topological qubits, which use braiding of particles for stability. They may be easier to manage, but that’s no sure thing yet.
So it looks like IBM, Alphabet and Microsoft are well on their way toward quantum computing. That may lead to a happy marriage with AI.
Comments