{"id":32667,"date":"2025-03-29T19:55:20","date_gmt":"2025-03-29T19:55:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quantfury.com\/?p=32667"},"modified":"2025-03-29T19:55:21","modified_gmt":"2025-03-29T19:55:21","slug":"stagflation-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quantfury.com\/portuge\/insights-do-mercado\/stagflation-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Nota sobre o Mercado: Sinais de estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o continuam a surgir"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

O final da d\u00e9cada de 1970 e in\u00edcio dos anos 80 \u00e9 considerado o pior per\u00edodo de longa dura\u00e7\u00e3o para a economia dos EUA desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial. O problema foi a estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o: uma combina\u00e7\u00e3o de baixo crescimento econ\u00f4mico e alta infla\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e3o foi agrad\u00e1vel para os mercados financeiros. Os pre\u00e7os de a\u00e7\u00f5es e t\u00edtulos despencaram, com o t\u00edtulo do Tesouro de 30 anos atingindo um pico de 15%. O presidente do Federal Reserve (o equivalente ao Banco Central dos EUA), Paul Volcker, teve que impor aumentos massivos nas taxas de juros para restaurar a ordem, ao custo de duas recess\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As coisas n\u00e3o est\u00e3o t\u00e3o graves agora, mas sinais de estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o surgiram, como foi observado<\/a> no Quantfury Insights do Mercado, em 26 de fevereiro. Os \u00faltimos sinais de problemas vieram na sexta-feira com o relat\u00f3rio do \u00edndice de pre\u00e7os para gastos de consumo pessoal (PCE). Os gastos pessoais subiram apenas 0,1% em fevereiro em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a janeiro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o \u00edndice de pre\u00e7os PCE, a medida favorita de infla\u00e7\u00e3o do Fed, aumentou 2,5% nos 12 meses at\u00e9 fevereiro (2,8% excluindo alimentos e energia). Isso ultrapassa em muito a meta de 2% do banco central.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As tarifas dos EUA s\u00e3o um outro fator que est\u00e1 alimentando a estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o. E elas se expandiram para o setor automotivo nesta semana. As tarifas causam infla\u00e7\u00e3o, j\u00e1 que os exportadores aumentam seus pre\u00e7os para compensar os impostos que precisam pagar. Elas tamb\u00e9m restringem o crescimento, fazendo empresas e consumidores hesitarem na hora de gastar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O espectro da estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o colocou um freio nas a\u00e7\u00f5es, com o \u00edndice S & P 500 caindo 9% desde a sua alta recorde em 19 de fevereiro. Pode ser que a estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o piore. Mas tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 poss\u00edvel que as tarifas dos EUA levem a uma guerra comercial que gere mais estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o, prejudicando todos os mercados de capitais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Portanto, como investidor, prossiga com cautela.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O final da d\u00e9cada de 1970 e in\u00edcio dos anos 80 \u00e9 considerado o pior per\u00edodo de longa dura\u00e7\u00e3o para a economia dos EUA desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial. O problema foi a estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o: uma combina\u00e7\u00e3o de baixo crescimento econ\u00f4mico e alta infla\u00e7\u00e3o. N\u00e3o foi agrad\u00e1vel para os mercados financeiros. Os pre\u00e7os de a\u00e7\u00f5es e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-insights-do-mercado"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNota sobre o Mercado: Sinais de estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o continuam a surgir | Quantfury<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O problema foi a estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o: uma combina\u00e7\u00e3o de baixo crescimento econ\u00f4mico e alta infla\u00e7\u00e3o. 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